巴伦周刊：熊猫与腾讯将提升动视50%股价

上周末，美国专业财经周刊《巴伦周刊》发表评论称，由于动视暴雪即将于今年9月下旬推出新产品《熊猫人之谜》，且其与中国腾讯公司展开了战略合作，其公司股票将在接下来的时间里上涨50%。在2012年上半年，动视暴雪的股价已经下跌了约10%，目前在11.25美元上下浮动。

《魔兽世界》新资料片《熊猫人之谜》将是直接影响动视暴雪股价的最重要因素之一。目前《魔兽世界》的付费用户数量约有910万，较上一季度下滑了100万，新资料片很有希望使游戏的付费用户量大量回升。

《巴伦周刊》还称，目前中国市场的网络游戏玩家数量约为1亿6千万，市场规模约为70亿美元，《巴伦周刊》预计到了2014年中国网游市场规模会增至90亿。目前动视暴雪已经与中国最大的两家网游运营商展开了深入合作，分别是腾讯和网易。

动视暴雪和腾讯展开了战略合作，后者获得了FPS网游《使命召唤OL》在中国市场的独家代理权，将以免费模式进行运营，大量的道具收费内容将使这款游戏的收入被大大提升。网易公司则负责运营动视暴雪集团旗下《魔兽世界》和《星际争霸2》等网游产品。

以下是评论的英文全文：

Bring on the pandas. In late September, Activision Blizzard plans to release the latest extension of its wildly popular World of Warcraft, a multiplayer online game set in a fantasy universe. Mists of Pandaria will include a new race of people, with a new language and unusual traits, as well as a new adventurer class outfitted with special weapons and armor and skills and powers.

Investors are hoping the Asian-themed game will breathe new life into one of the videogame maker's top franchises, and give Activision Blizzard's shares a much-needed lift. The stock (ticker: ATVI) has been in the doldrums for much of the past few years, the result of a down cycle for packaged videogames for consoles ike Playstation3 and Xbox and intense pressure from cheaper games played on smartphones and tablets such as the iPad.

The launch of Mists of Pandaria is one of a few events in the coming year that should benefit Activision Blizzard's stock price. A number of its new releases are topping the charts in the U.S. and European markets, and it recently formed a promising partnership with Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), China's largest Internet provider, to grab a bigger piece of that country's booming games market by making its popular Call of Duty available online.

All of this could help Activision shares, which have fallen about 10% this year, versus a gain of nearly 11% for the broad market. At a recent $11.25, the stock was trading at just 11 times next year's estimated earnings per share, or eight times, excluding cash on the balance sheet. Success with the new initiatives and some resulting margin expansion could lift those multiples smartly; the shares could rise as much as 50%.

Complicating the Activision Blizzard story somewhat is the news that its controlling shareholder, the French telecommunications and media conglomerate Vivendi (VIV.France), is interested in selling the 61.5% stake it obtained through the $19 billion merger of Activision with Blizzard Entertainment in 2008. But it's not clear when or if a deal will go through, or what it might look like. Under at least one scenario, Activision's shareholders could come out ahead.

THERE'S NO QUESTION that teaming Activision with Tencent could pay off nicely. Call of Duty will be free to play but will include an in-game store, at which players can buy gear and accessories. Terms weren't disclosed, but Wall Street expects the deal, which could launch in mid-2013, to add meaningfully to Activision Blizzard's annual earnings per share, with one analyst putting the eventual potential as high as 17 cents a year. The consensus estimate for total earnings in 2013 is $1.08, up from 98 cents this year.

The Chinese online gaming market, estimated at nearly $7 billion in 2011 with 160 million online gamers, is expected to increase by 20% this year and reach more than $9 billion by 2014. Tencent, which offers China's No. 1 game, CrossFire, a free-to-play multiplayer game comparable to Call of Duty, is the top game operator in China with $2.5 billion in revenue in 2011. NetEase (NTES), with which Activision has partnered to offer World of Warcraft in China, is No. 2, with $1 billion in revenue.

Another plus for Santa Monica, Calif.-based Activision Blizzard is the strong reception given to its Diablo III, launched in May; more than six million units were sold in the first week. By some estimates, Diablo could contribute more than five cents a share to earnings this year, not including the profits from an auction house that lets players buy and sell gear for their characters. In this year's first six months, Skylanders, a family-friendly game played with toys, was the best-selling videogame in North America and Europe and best-selling line of action figures.

Microsoft's Xbox 360 and Sony's PS3 are both getting upgrades, a boon to Activision.

In addition, the game-development team Bungie, creator of the popular Halo game, among others, and a long-term partner of Activision since 2010, plans next year to release a four-game massive multiplayer online science-fantasy game code-named Destiny. Also, widely expected to launch in 2013: the next generation of game consoles from Sony (SNE) and Microsoft (MSFT)—and possibly Apple (AAPL). Those products should lead to a new sales cycle for game companies, including Activision Blizzard.

"The dynamics of the next console cycle—which we expect to be driven by the ability to drive all digital-content distribution in the living room through a single device–will be much more positive for videogame publishers that own and create high-quality content than the last console cycle," says Cowen analyst Doug Creutz. "That can only be good for Activision. I'm very bullish on Activision. They are the best videogame company out there, in terms of intellectual property and talent."